Dead End Fight Drags Down These REIT Share Prices

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The battle between Ashford Hospitality Prime’s external advisor (AINC) and activist Sessa Capital is getting uglier and just reinforces the speculative situation of the stock at this moment. Unfortunately, this hasn’t helped the share price. Last week, the shares of both hotel REITs managed by AINC, Ashford Hospitality Prime (AHP) and Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT), trailed our roster or equity REITs once again.

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Ahead of AHP’s 2016 shareholder meeting in June, both sides have filed lawsuits against the other and made their case to shareholders through presentations and press releases. Sessa, the third largest shareholder of AHP, even created a website, www.FixAshfordPrime.com.

In the latest developments, AINC announced they were suing Sessa Capital for tortious interference for $200 million (AHP’s market cap is under $300 million). In a recent press release, they also argued that Sessa failed to propose a plan that maximizes shareholder’s value. They went on to say that Sessa and its director nominees don’t have the necessary experience in lodging, so they aren’t going to simply hand over the keys to them. They even tried to disqualify Sessa’s director choices, while accusing a director nominee of “blatant resume padding.” The management filed a compelling investor presentation to showcase their credentials and performance as managers on ahpreit.com.

Sessa, who is coming from the other perspective, reproves Ashford Prime’s underperformance by saying it is the result of bad governance. The slate of directors that Sessa picked leans toward corporate governance. On numerous occasions, they have brought up the controversial terms of the advisory agreement between AHP and AINC, as well as the conflict of interests.

The change of directors that Sessa is proposing could lead to hefty termination fees (“proxy penalty”), for which they criticize AINC heavily. They say the penalty could be in the range of hundreds of millions of dollars and make up for a significant portion of AHP’s share price.

Since it’s currently unclear how Sessa will be able to get around the termination fee, it looks like their inexperience has put them in the midst of a dead end legal fight. First-time activist, Sessa Capital is learning that external managers don’t release their bones easily. If the solution to the termination fees must be found through a legal battle, the outcome will probably not be positive for shareholders. And, of course, the legal fees can be astronomical.

Sessa Capital has already made it clear that they want to clear the way for the company to sell their assets. This way, they can take full advantage of the discrepancy between share price and asset value in private markets. Indeed, like many hotel REITs, Ashford Prime share price dropped 40% over the past twelve months. Sessa Capital has made white proxy cards available to Ashford shareholders, so they could vote for the slate of directors they recommend.

Ashford Prime, like the name suggests, has assembled the most luxurious assets (high RevPAR) that Ashford Trust previously had.

Due to deep undervalue, I still see some upsides to AHP, but I’d only invest in the company for speculative purposes. I feel that, due to inexperience, Sessa Capital will not be able to be successful.

Feel free to let us know which side you are on in the comments section below.

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. The highest-yield stocks are not necessarily the best portfolio investment choice. The purpose of this report — which is essentially a snapshot of information available on March 25, 2016 — is to reduce your stock analysis by enabling you to compare stock and sector performance. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision.

As of February 29, 2016, the equity REITs are constituent companies of the FTSE NAREIT All REITs Index. Companies whose equity market capitalization is lower than $100 million have been disregarded.

This report is not engaged in rendering tax, accounting, or other professional advice through this publication. No statement in this issue is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment. Some information presented in this publication has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable. Sources are not required to make representations as to the accuracy of the information, however, and consequently the publisher cannot guarantee accuracy.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any shares mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

It’s Not a Good Time to Own Lodging REITs

 

sample.pngI am surprised at the financial markets sudden pessimism at the beginning of 2016 after the markets ended 2015 on a positive note. The interest rate hike made the domestic economy more predictable, but concerns overseas have amplified losses in the S&P 500 and equity REITs. Suddenly I started to give Janet Yellen credit for being concerned about China.

In 2016, lodging and timber REIT stocks could be potential casualties. Two weeks into 2016, lodging is down by 17% and timber is down by 14%; this is already half the losses both sectors experienced in all of 2015. In 2015, infrastructure fell by 32%, lodging by 29%, and timber by 17%.

Lodging REIT stocks have had great growth rates, but now is not a good time to own these stocks. First, market sentiment is negative towards lodging due to their performance. Investors have assumed that they are at its peak and ready to go downhill. Investors have been so sensitive that every piece of bad news associated with lodging makes them dump the stocks.

In addition, market sentiment is negative towards REITs in general due to the interest rate hike. Whenever the Fed raises the yield on 10-year treasury notes, they become more competitive against REIT dividend yields. 10-year treasury notes are risk free which gives them a clear advantage over owning REITs.

In a statement last week, LaSalle Hotel Properties said they have revised down the metrics and don’t expect fourth quarter growth in RevPAR. They also will not provide forward looking statements for 2016 because the current environment has been too clouded. Their stocks have dropped by 11.4%. Largely because of the statement, lodging stocks, on average, have fallen by 10%.

Also, John Petry of Sessa Capital LP, which owns 8.2% of Ashford Hospitality Prime, is currently trying to remove the board and management after witnessing ‘one self-serving action after another.’ Petry wants to put it up for sale. I welcome a move to more transparency in the REIT space, but in this negative environment, I can only wish Petry good luck. Easy to play the hero role, but hard to execute it. The market seems to believe the same thing as Ashford’s stocks plummeted between 16%-18% last week.

Check the reports for Dividend Yield by Sector and Weekly Returns.

Heli Brecailo

Companies: Ashford Hospitality Prime, Inc. (NYSE:AHP), Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. (NYSE:AHT), LaSalle Hotel Properties (NYSE:LHO)

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. The highest-yield stocks are not necessarily the best portfolio investment choice. The purpose of this report — which is essentially a snapshot of information available on January 15, 2016 — is to reduce your stock analysis by enabling you to compare stock and sector performance. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision.

As of December 31, 2015, the equity REITs are constituent companies of the FTSE NAREIT All REITs Index. Companies whose equity market capitalization is lower than $100 million have been disregarded.

This report is not engaged in rendering tax, accounting, or other professional advice through this publication. No statement in this issue is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment. Some information presented in this publication has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable. Sources are not required to make representations as to the accuracy of the information, however, and consequently the publisher cannot guarantee accuracy.

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any shares mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.