Why We Have Decided To Invest In This Hotel REIT

chart01Following its official Q2 announcement last week, Pebblebrook began trading with a significant 5% drop. Pebblebrook continues to tread lightly after seeing business travel getting soft in Q2. The weakening of corporate demand in transient and group travel forced Jon Bortz (Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Pebblebrook) to lower expectations for some of the hotel metrics.

The REIT reported that some industries have been sensitive to costs due to weaker corporate profits. For instance, energy and financial services have been more ‘thoughtful about travel’ and have been cutting back on travel. The drop in corporate earnings has forced management teams to become more conservative when it comes to helping their companies save capital. It is also vital to point out that current global events and a stronger U.S. dollar are making people leery about traveling. This has certainly affected the company’s results.

Despite the market’s negative reaction, the firm owns a portfolio that has the potential to deliver positive results over the next year. The customer base has a mixed profile and the west coast properties (especially Portland and Los Angeles) are performing very well at this time.

The company has also made an earnest effort at reuniting a strong series of internal catalysts of growth. They sold a land parcel and two hotels recently. They have also devoted a great deal of their time in renovating and repositioning a number of hotels. The sales of proceeds will be used to lower outstanding debt on a credit facility. The sales of proceeds may also be used to repurchase stocks and pay special dividends.

Pebblebrook’s 5% dip is not as big as their last major share price fall to $24 in June. The slight dip provides a buy opportunity that shrewd investors cannot afford to ignore. Last year, the company was trading above 20 times its AFFO. It is presently trading at 11 times its AFFO. This is not a solid guarantee that the price will increase, it just points out that investors have seen this before.

In short, one must be prudent when it comes to investing in REIT stocks. There’s much hype out there. Pebblebrook has exceptional management and an impressive portfolio. With this slight dip, we have decided to buy the stock. We didn’t want to miss this opportunity!

Source: Pebblebrook Hotel Trust(NYSE:PEB)

Disclaimer: This newsletter is not engaged in rendering tax, accounting, or other professional advice through this publication. No statement in this issue is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision. Some information presented in this publication has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable. Sources are not required to make representations as to the accuracy of the information, however, and consequently the publisher cannot guarantee accuracy.

Disclosure: The author is long FCH, XHR, CLDT, and PEB.

This is a REIT that Reached Multiple Above 30

chart01Terreno Realty is one of our favorite industrial REITs, which has hit greater and higher high after June’s REIT rally. The stocks that are a part of the industrial sector have advanced an average of 7% in July while also appreciating by more than 33% year to date. This is seen especially in Terreno, which has reached a multiple 37 times AFFO. This is one the highest, if not the highest multiple among the industrial REITs.

Despite Terreno’s minimalistic management reporting of results, we are able to pull up their 10-Q and July presentation. From this, we are able to see that both the REIT and the sector are still performing very well. In the Q2, the same store NOI grew by 3% on a GAAP basis and up to 5% on a cash basis. However, its funds from operations, which are equivalent to earnings for REITs, has decreased on absolute terms and on a share basis.

An increase in G&A expenses that are associated with long-term incentive plans explains a significant portion of the FFO drop. This company advocates for share award incentive for its executives. Over a pre-established performance measurement period, the total shareholder returns of the Company’s common stock are taken and compared to the total shareholder return of key indices. Which means that the June rally helped to boost their incentive compensation.

In summation, the new highs have had it almost impossible to consider this stock as a buying opportunity. But if you have some its shares already, it is a good idea to hold onto them, for a potential sell opportunity. You might consider cash in (like the management just did) if you think the Fed will negatively influence REITs this year. With the high institutional ownership of the stock, it is very unlikely that an investor will be able to make any sharp gains from any sharp dips. The most sensible action to take for this stock is to just sit back and monitor it.

Source: Terreno Realty Corp.(NYSE:TRNO), Fast Graphs

Disclaimer: This newsletter is not engaged in rendering tax, accounting, or other professional advice through this publication. No statement in this issue is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision. Some information presented in this publication has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable. Sources are not required to make representations as to the accuracy of the information, however, and consequently the publisher cannot guarantee accuracy.

Disclosure: The author is long FCH, XHR, CLDT, PEB.

Manufactured Home REITs Have Experienced Good Gains

chart01.pngUnder the perception that Janet Yellen will not raise interest rates for a while, many investors have been searching for yield. Popular REITs like net lease stocks appreciated, but we have started to take notice in interest on other REIT sectors. For instance, manufactured homes have experienced some good gains.

There are three stocks that make up the manufactured home REIT sector. These stocks had around a 10% return last June, which was more than the average REIT. Even the undervalued UMH, whose portfolio is mainly focused on fracking regions in Pennsylvania and Ohio, have also rallied by 13% in June. Not to mention, that they are now accumulating over 20% a year to date return. The stock is yielding almost 6% and its dividends have not been covered yet.

As a result, all three of these stocks seem to be fairly priced, and we are not currently seeing any upside right now. It is still possible that Yellen could lend a hand to REIT stocks again, but this is not something that I would consider an investment strategy. With her short history, that is mainly made up of flip-flopping, it is fair to say that the Fed’s opinions have been swinging to the moods of the world’s economy.

Equity LifeStyle Properties has already released Q2 results. They have shown that the market fundamentals are continuing to hold strong. For manufactured business, which includes the majority of revenues, occupancy has increased for the 27th consecutive quarter. Plus the monthly rent base is continuing to trend upwards. For their Recreational Vehicle business, the same-store NOI rose by 6%.

Both Sun Communities and UMH Properties will release their Q2 results this week. Sun Communities are coming from the major acquisition of Carefree Communities. This caused an increase in its number of communities by approximately 44%. This will be the first time we will review the consolidated results of such a large company.

To sum up, I would wait for the Sun Communities and UMH Properties Q2 results. However, this time around I am not hopeful that there will be a window of opportunity.

Source: Sun Communities Inc.(NYSE:SUI), Equity LifeStyle Properties, I(NYSE:ELS), UMH Properties Inc.(NYSE:UMH)

Disclaimer: This newsletter is not engaged in rendering tax, accounting, or other professional advice through this publication. No statement in this issue is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision. Some information presented in this publication has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable. Sources are not required to make representations as to the accuracy of the information, however, and consequently the publisher cannot guarantee accuracy.

Disclosure: The author is long FCH, XHR, CLDT, and PEB.

Yellow Flag on Hotel REITs

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During the release of Q2 results last week, several lodging stocks relayed the weakening of corporate transient demand. This has led some management teams to be more cautious while several have decided to review their 2016 guidance figures. Hotel REITs are not saying how long this will take, but they have confirmed that the second half of the year will suffer from the lingering effect.

The main cause has been the macro environment. Many uncertainties have led many companies, regardless of their size, to spend less and also cut travel expenses. Plus, the geopolitical tensions and fears of terrorism have discouraged travelers. With domestic and global events such as Brexit, China economy, oil prices, and U.S. elections, companies are lacking a clear horizon.

Hilton Worldwide, which is planning to spin off to create ‘Park Hotels & Resorts REIT,’ has mentioned on their Q2 call that, because of corporate transient, they remain on the lower end of their guidance range. While the corporate transient segment is slowing down, the group business is still doing well.

FelCor Lodging Trust, which is significantly exposed to the business traveler customer base, has also reported they are expecting group business to remain solid. While the group business partially offsets the decline in business transient performance, they are still continuing to expect negative effects on hotel metrics.

The Dow Jones U.S. Hotel & Lodging index has dropped by 4% by Wednesday, in tandem with most hotel REITs, but it has quickly recovered. Regarding last week’s worst performers, FelCor went down by 8%, Pebblebrook fell by 5%, and Hersha dropped by 3%.

Although the softness was detected a couple of months ago, a stronger impact has recently thrown down a yellow flag on hotels, whose operational results have been doing well. While on the other hand, the softening has made a low to moderate impact on the results. Many management teams have reported that there are ways to mitigate the impact.

In conclusion, the softening is not all bad, but it still will require some monitoring.

Source: Dow Jones U.S. Hotel & Lodging (^DJUSHL), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.(NYSE:HLT), FelCor Lodging Trust Incorporated (NYSE:FCH), Pebblebrook Hotel Trust(NYSE:PEB), Hersha Hospitality Trust(NYSE:HT)

Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. The highest-yield stocks are not necessarily the best portfolio investment choice. The purpose of this report — which is essentially a snapshot of information available on July 29, 2016 — is to reduce your stock analysis by enabling you to compare stock and sector performance. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision.

As of May 31, 2016, the equity REITs are constituent companies of the FTSE NAREIT All REITs Index. Companies whose equity market capitalization is lower than $100 million have been disregarded.

This report is not engaged in rendering tax, accounting, or other professional advice through this publication. No statement in this issue is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment. Some information presented in this publication has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable. Sources are not required to make representations as to the accuracy of the information, however, and consequently the publisher cannot guarantee accuracy.

Disclosure: The author is long FCH, XHR, CLDT, PEB.

The Only Mall in Town in Upswing

chart01.pngCBL & Associates Properties, nicknamed the “Only Game in Town,” appears to be working its way up, after the recent crisis. Following the news that the SEC had been investigating the REIT has caused a drop in the share price. But during this month the stock finally surged and spiked up to 20%. It was not long after that when the market timers started to recommend that the stock is a buying opportunity. After reviewing the financial results, and the history they could be right, but is it really a quality investment?

While the SEC accusations seemed to be very bad at the beginning, the company has been able to respond and reduce their importance. The confusion all started when the Wall Street Journal back in May mentioned the SEC was investigating the company for accounting fraud. There was even a link to Donald Trump because a potential vice president had profited from the stocks, needless to say the company promptly denied any wrongdoing. Then weeks later the company issued a press release which said that they had discovered that the SEC was looking into four secured loans that dated between 2011 to 2012. The company also hired Ernst & Young to conduct an independent investigation.

The damages done to the stock was severe. The share price reached its lowest point since late June of 2009 at $8.86. During this month, the stock has rebounded and is now trading around $11. The multiple at 7 times AFFO is still considered to be cheap when it is compared to its peers. In fact, the share price needs to triple in order to approach multiples that are equivalent to its successful peers, which is unlikely.

The company is able to check most of the items that the investors get excited about, which can include dividend payout, consistent dividend paying history, seasoned management, and dividend yield. The REIT is a part of a low productivity malls that have been plagued by secular threats to malls. Due to the bankruptcies, last year, 175 stored were closed and the company lost 310 basis points in occupancy. The company was able to find the other tenants and recoup most of the ground that was lost. But it might be too late since the episode exposed the company’s weak spots.

In conclusion, after reaching its lowest point CBL is starting to bounce back. Which is causing many of the investors to enjoy the ride, but this upswing could last a short amount of time.

PS. The company releases Q2-2016 results on Thursday 28.

 

Source: CBL & Associates Properties In(NYSE:CBL)

Disclaimer: This newsletter is not engaged in rendering tax, accounting, or other professional advice through this publication. No statement in this issue is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision. Some information presented in this publication has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable. Sources are not required to make representations as to the accuracy of the information, however, and consequently the publisher cannot guarantee accuracy.

Disclosure: The author is long FCH, XHR, and CLDT.

Buy Opportunities Look Great in Hindsight

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Successful stocks always look like great buy opportunities when you use hindsight. As they begin to perform well, market timers cannot resist the temptation of purchasing stocks that might generate an impressive return. The behavior of aggressive investors creates more fuel for the momentum of stocks that are performing well. Some net lease REITs such as Realty Income and National Retail Properties have recently benefited from this phenomenon. In June, investors became more aggressive with their search of profitable opportunities. Is this also the case of another net lease company, EPR Properties?

In May 2015, we conducted a close analysis of EPR Properties, a REIT that concentrates on the entertainment business. EPR Properties received favorable marks for an impressive FFO per share growth and dividend yield (please click here to see the post). Compared to four other popular net lease REITs (STAG Industrial, Spirit Realty, Lexington Realty, and National Retail), we gave it a third place ranking based upon its potential to perform well in the future. We gave National Retail the top ranked position. As time progressed, we found out that our rankings were fairly correct.

It is clear that EPR and National Retail have experienced similar success. Over the last twelve months, both stocks returned with an impressive 40% increase. National Retail is a diversified REIT in the free-standing retail category. EPR is a unique stock that that invests in education, entertainment, and recreation. EPR recently announced they have plans of entering into the casino industry. At this present time, there aren’t many REITs like EPR.

EPR, a net lease mid-cap, captures investor’s attention due to the strength of the entertainment industry. Its presence in 37 states and long debt maturity profile are two more factors that attract investors. It is important to point out that investors may not feel comfortable with AMC’s 20% tenant concentration, weak tenants’ credit quality, and the stern threat to movie theaters from digital technologies.

After CEO Greg Silvers’ appearance on Mad Money and release of the Q1 results, the stock’s performance improved dramatically. They made an earnest effort at drawing in more investors when they emphasized that millennials value experience over material things, something that strengthens entertainment fundamentals. They are now trading at around eighteen times AFFO versus thirteen times this time last year. Dividend yield is above the average equity REIT.

In short, it is difficult to tell if the stock will continue to rise. In this instance, we see this stock being more on the downside. However, it can be a great stock for investors interested in diversifying their REIT portfolio with a stock from an unusual sector.

Source: EPR Properties(NYSE:EPR)

Disclaimer: This newsletter is not engaged in rendering tax, accounting, or other professional advice through this publication. No statement in this issue is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision. Some information presented in this publication has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable. Sources are not required to make representations as to the accuracy of the information, however, and consequently the publisher cannot guarantee accuracy.

Disclosure: The author is long FCH.

An Industrial REIT Opens Q2 Season With Good News

chart01.pngLast Tuesday, Prologis, the largest industrial REIT with a market cap of $27 billion, officially opened the Q2 season for U.S. equity REITs with good news. Although the stock fell flat following the release, the results were better than expected, crowning a year-to-date return of about 21%. For us, one of the most important results were upping the same-store NOI midpoint growth for 2016 to 5%.

The 2016 increase of same-store NOI is an indication that industrials have not yet their reached saturation point. The 5% growth is just slightly lower than last year’s numbers. Same-store metrics allow investors to determine what portion of growth has come from existing properties and what portion can be attributed to the opening of new stores. Prologis, with its large number of properties, gives us a fairly clear indication that the industry growth is still coming from within.

Investors realized that the company’s exposure to the UK was minimal, a realization that was reinforced by CEO Hamid Moghadam during the Q2 release call. When the Brexit results were announced, the stock fell more than 5% in the following days before and then recovering to the current level of $51. 28% of Prologis’ square feet are located abroad, so initial concerns regarding the potential impact on the company were valid. However, it turns out that the UK actually makes up less than 3% of their portfolio.

You really cannot go wrong with Prologis. This is a global, large cap with lower volatility and a diversified portfolio that has experienced management and enjoys an investment grade credit rating. However, with the recent rally, it is becoming increasingly harder to extract any upside and stock appears to be in the right place.

In conclusion, we cannot say for sure that Prologis is right for your portfolio, but we definitely see Prologis as a good fit for anyone looking for a lower return, lower risk investment.

Source: Prologis, Inc.(NYSE:PLD)

Disclaimer: This newsletter is not engaged in rendering tax, accounting, or other professional advice through this publication. No statement in this issue is to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or other investment. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision. Some information presented in this publication has been obtained from third-party sources considered to be reliable. Sources are not required to make representations as to the accuracy of the information, however, and consequently the publisher cannot guarantee accuracy.

Disclosure: The author is long FCH, XHR, and CLDT.