I have had an overwhelming feeling that healthcare and hotels reits are the only good entries left. Over the last few months many companies, with good fundamentals have reached high multiples. This has left fewer options on the table, and one of the last groups left has been net lease retail. Since this list has begun to slowly decline, I have found myself starting to weigh the risks over rewards more often and reviewing less popular picks. For example, just last week I picked Spirit Realty Capital, from the net lease group. I picked Spirit Realty because it showed a chance of potentially having a turnaround in the market.
This week, we’ll feature Whitestone, which is another option to the overcrowded shopping center sector. This company displayed some risks that could have some potential negative impact on their stock performance. But, today, I will look at Government Properties Income, an office REIT that is part of our second tier group. That is, for over five years, this company has been distributing the same or increasing stocks without interruption.
During the last twelve months, the Government share price was down, and more recently up. It has an AFFO multiple that has been around 10 while its dividend yield is at 9% making it one of the highest yields. Despite the recent appreciation, this stock still has a 20% upside just from looking at its past performance.
Government Properties, which has been externally managed by the Portnoy family, is currently faced with two main concerns. The most compelling is that a portion of their portfolio is currently expiring in the short and mid-terms. Meaning that over the next two years 26% of this company’s portfolio will expire. In addition, since this is an election year, there will be a certain degree of uncertainty over the projected federal government expenses.
One of the management’s main goals has been to renew as many of their leases as possible, which they accomplished in the Q1. With their new leasing, the profile has improved, as opposed to the same time frame of last year. The occupancy levels have also been steady over the last year.
At the same, though, we are not sure about their debt profile, since those metrics have deteriorated. The ratios between debt to adjusted EBITDA and the total debt to total gross assets have increased. But the deterioration, so far, has been in small increments and has not yet threatened its public debt covenants. The company hold an investment grade rating.
In regards to the elections, the management has yet been able to tell which direction the market will go. As of right now, they have also decided to not outline possible scenarios. With a potential change of party on the horizon, this will certainly cause a splash in the federal government. As a result of this, it will add more uncertainty to the expiring leases.
In conclusion, with so many declining opportunities that are outside the healthcare and hotel realms, Government Properties, with their high dividend yield and decent record, seems to be a good entry point into the market.
Source: Government Properties Income T(NYSE:GOV), Spirit Realty Capital, Inc.(NYSE:SRC), Whitestone REIT(NYSE:WSR)
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Disclosure: The author has no positions in any shares mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.